Saxo Bank has run another survey of their clients to gain insights into how they predict the markets will move in Q3.

The latest Saxo client pulse survey indicates a general positive sentiment regarding global equity markets and sector performance, with the majority of the respondents (43.6%) anticipating an increase in the global equity markets. However, the biggest shift in sentiment since last quarter’s pulse survey (15.2% to 29.8%) was seen in the increased votes for “no movement” occurring in the markets.

Based on the latest survey, a significant portion of investors identified geopolitical tensions (42.9%) and interest rates (37.1%) as the primary factors likely to influence their investment strategies over the next three months. The looming US election also plays a crucial role, with 32.8% of respondents considering it a significant influence.

These concerns underscore the heightened uncertainty in the global market, where political and economic events dictate investor sentiment and strategy adjustments.

When reviewing the answers of almost 2,300 clients on whether they believe global equity markets will increase or decrease, there’s a clear trend that different ages have different perspectives.

Although more clients in the age ranges of 76+ still believe the markets will increase, they remain the demographic group with most clients opting for the equity market to decrease, while nearly 60% of those below 35 remain optimistic on equities.

When it comes to sector performance, respondents have identified key areas they believe will outperform.

Dominating the expectations, 32.2% of respondents see this sector as the top performer, driven by ongoing digital transformation and technological advancements. This is a minor dip in optimism since last quarter, when 33.7% of respondents pushed for IT.

The survey shows 16.1% of clients favour health care as a sector that is likely to outperform. This is a jump of 168% of last quarter’s 6%.

Last quarter, the energy sector was the second most selected sector believed to perform the best in Q2 with 17.4% of client votes. However, this quarter saw the sector optimism drop by 63%, chosen only by 6.4% of clients. This moves the energy sector down the rankings from second to fifth.

In terms of regional performance North America remains as the region clients believe will perform the best in Q3 (47.6% of respondents). However, Europe has grown in optimism, going from the market predicted to perform the worst behind emerging markets, to jumping by 143% to a second place behind North America.

The survey was distributed to Saxo clients between 06/06/2024-18/06/2024 and consisted of 2,299 respondents. The survey was executed in English, French, Dutch and Danish and sent to clients in the respective language markets.