An interesting phenomenon is unfolding in the capital markets, around the upcoming Playtech shareholder vote to approve (or, reject) the offer made to buy the company by Australia’s Aristocrat Leisure Ltd (ASX:ALL).

In mid October Aristocrat agreed to pay 680p in cash for all Playtech plc (LON:PTEC) shares, in a transaction valuing Playtech’s equity at £2.1 billion (USD $2.8 billion). One or two other suitors for Playtech have come and gone since the October announcement, including one group led by former Formula 1 owner Eddie Jordan and ex Ladbrokes executive Keith O’Loughlin, but the Aristocrat offer is the only one now on the table.

Playtech shares were trading in the 430p range before Aristocrat came around, but soon after the shares shot up above 700p – above the Aristocrat offer price – in anticipation of a competing higher bidder, or an improved offer from Aristocrat.

But neither of those scenarios have transpired.

After the Eddie Jordan group formally withdrew its hat from the ring in mid January, Playtech shares traded down by more than 25% to the mid £5 range. They subsequently recovered to about 640p – close to the 680p price – but over the past week have further retreated, and today are down by more than 4% to sit at 555p as at the time of writing mid afternoon GMT time.

The 555p price – 18% below the Aristocrat 680p offer – indicates that shareholders (and traders) are betting that the deal will be rejected at the Playtech shareholder vote, scheduled for tomorrow (February 2). In “normal” M&A situations when a deal is set to be rubber-stamped by shareholders, the target’s share price will usually trade right at or below the offer price (as there’s always some risk that a deal might not close, such as regulator or anti-trust approval).

Should the deal fall apart, there is certainly the possibility that Playtech shares could drop back to the mid to low 400-450p range they were in before the Aristocrat deal was first announced.

Playtech, for its part, has neither confirmed nor denied speculation that it is working on a “Plan B” to break up the company should its shareholders reject the Aristocrat offer.